Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.454750 0.524626 0.600198 0.687821 0.786427 0.893768 1.019261
2025-06-01 0.361617 0.455070 0.563750 0.698772 0.861255 1.049682 1.283870
2025-06-08 0.287896 0.393835 0.525823 0.700694 0.924423 1.199027 1.559260
2025-06-15 0.243221 0.360446 0.516355 0.735669 1.032433 1.415775 1.943337
2025-06-22 0.189187 0.304872 0.469489 0.715594 1.067804 1.546235 2.236021
2025-06-29 0.150362 0.263291 0.434986 0.707172 1.117928 1.702688 2.582687
2025-07-06 0.118501 0.225710 0.399866 0.692340 1.156965 1.848698 2.932598
2025-07-13 0.100439 0.206870 0.390609 0.715683 1.256259 2.093370 3.451962
2025-07-20 0.082330 0.183846 0.370325 0.717995 1.322949 2.296559 3.931411
2025-07-27 0.069710 0.168206 0.360102 0.735795 1.417364 2.553428 4.520535
2025-08-03 0.059372 0.154638 0.351193 0.754511 1.515733 2.827027 5.163331
2025-08-10 0.046757 0.132668 0.321522 0.729395 1.532707 2.965856 5.597414
2025-08-17 0.035491 0.110781 0.288224 0.693256 1.528024 3.073331 6.001603
2025-08-24 0.028661 0.097793 0.271497 0.688357 1.583047 3.294198 6.627367
2025-08-31 0.022854 0.085509 0.253565 0.677684 1.625309 3.496691 7.241184
2025-09-07 0.019705 0.079940 0.250902 0.701289 1.742324 3.853940 8.174293
2025-09-14 0.015143 0.067935 0.228506 0.674021 1.746304 3.991184 8.705789
2025-09-21 0.011968 0.059196 0.212660 0.659727 1.776949 4.184960 9.364292
2025-09-28 0.009329 0.051098 0.196344 0.640848 1.794152 4.352553 9.985926
2025-10-05 0.008020 0.047770 0.193796 0.658631 1.900999 4.719889 11.041259
2025-10-12 0.006566 0.042979 0.185131 0.657549 1.961420 4.992523 11.923829
2025-10-19 0.005604 0.039986 0.181772 0.671398 2.061594 5.362756 13.041050
2025-10-26 0.004805 0.037357 0.178983 0.686521 2.167221 5.755083 14.235640